I think the Sanaki and Politics options work together pretty well. Like, Tibarn had been considering the political repercussions but he didn't want to let go of revenge, Sanaki approaches him and he doesn't want to bend to her wishes but their meeting convinces him that the political repercussions really could be bad, etc. Actually, a lot of these options become more plausible if they're combined, I think (One heron trying to talk him out of it? 'Come on Reyson he's already fooled you 2423 times'. Three herons trying to talk him out of it? 'Crap.'). Also, I never considered Rafiel+Naesala before, and considering Rafiel's past with Hetzel and his reaction to that it has some interesting potential.